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For the past three decades, U.S. equities have benefited from powerful structural tailwinds: retirement accounts on autopilot, record corporate buybacks, and accommodative monetary policy; however, many of these forces are beginning to weaken, just as leverage reaches historic highs and net equity issuance turns positive. In our latest white paper, we explore a simple question: Who is the last incremental buyer and what happens when that source of demand begins to fade?

Private credit’s shift into semi-liquid structures exposed a fundamental mismatch between investor liquidity expectations and the inherently illiquid nature of private loans. That tension surfaced as funds faced roughly US$20 billion in redemption requests, forcing managers to rely on gates, caps, and deferrals to manage outflows.

Amid the unprecedented AI infrastructure buildout, we cut through the noise by isolating two core credit risks, running the numbers, then layering in macro context—concentration, circular financing, national interest, and more. The result is not a sensational prediction. It is a grounded, full-view assessment of what's happening, what could go wrong, and why the market has held up so far. This deep dive represents our commitment to exhaustive, independent thinking.

Recent bankruptcies—namely, Tricolor, First Brands, and Broadband Telecom—have ignited concerns about the state of the private credit market. In this paper, we examine the root causes behind these failures, explore the structural dynamics at play, and reaffirm why disciplined underwriting, rigorous monitoring, and substantive overcollateralization are fundamental to long-term credit performance.

Recent bankruptcies—namely, Tricolor, First Brands, and Broadband Telecom—have ignited concerns about the state of the private credit market. In this paper, we examine the root causes behind these failures, explore the structural dynamics at play, and reaffirm why disciplined underwriting, rigorous monitoring, and substantive overcollateralization are fundamental to long-term credit performance.

On August 7th, 2025, U.S. President Trump signed Executive Order 14330' (EO), which directs the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to issue guidance for employers regarding the integration of private market assets into U.S. 401(k) retirement plans.